Two years later, an epochal referendum that established the separation of the United Kingdom from the rest of the European Union, the moment of official divorce is getting closer and closer. But the country finds itself torn and confused as never before, with Brussels squaring and offering an agreement that the British do not like, the Prime Minister Theresa May who is cashing one blow after another in the parliamentary debate (the last the December 5, when she was forced to publish a legal opinion on Brexit that she wanted to censor) and the resignation epidemic that is affecting her cabinet. The final showdown (or almost) will take place on December 11, when the British Chamber of Commons will vote to approve or reject the deal.
It is a passage to which May can not escape. All analyzes agree that the result will be a clear, incontrovertible no. What would happen, in that case? Let's face it now: a crazy mess. Such a quantity of options and hypotheses would open up that to put them together, the journalist Henry Zeffman started from a very tangled design on an envelope and then published a double page in the Times, with a future theme for May and Brexit.
Let's try to untangle the skein, reasoning by hypothesis.
May returns to Brussels to renegotiate
If the Tories government were to lose, as it seems, the challenge to the House of Commons on the so-called Withdrawal Agrement, which defines the frame of future relations between the United Kingdom and the EU, ratification of the same can not take place.
It is very unlikely, but May could return to Brussels to request further changes to the agreement. The team of European negotiators, led by Michel Barnier, most likely would say no, and this would bring the situation back to the previous point. But there could be a twist, and both May and the EU could agree on some specific points of the agreement. But they would be mostly cosmetic, superficial adjustments, and it would be difficult for Parliament to approve this new attempt. At that point, faced with a second rejection, two roads would remain: May's immediate resignation, or an immediate vote to ask for the government's confidence in Parliament.
A motion of no confidence against the government
It is the path that could follow immediately after the rejection of many members of the Conservative party and the opposition. According to the regulation, the motion of no confidence can be held if to ask for it there is at least 15% of conservative deputies, namely 48 rebel parliamentarians. According to reliable sources, the number would have already been reached in recent weeks.
At that point there would be different scenarios for the party leadership: the first, even if it is unlikely, is that some advocates of the hard Brexit - that is an exit without agreements with Brussels - could think again, and May could gain confidence, preserving his post as head of the conservatives. May will still need 159 votes to survive, which is half of the 316 deputies of his party plus one. If May were to lose, however, would begin a long and exhausting process to replace it, both in the role of party leader and in that of premier. To follow the whole procedure, Parliament could ask for an extension of the European Union on the negotiations, but Brussels does not seem willing to grant it.
After this phase of internal political uncertainty, however, another one regarding the agreement would open: anyone who substitutes May, should be able to get a better agreement within a few weeks than the one obtained by May in 17 months. At that point the hypothesis of an exit from the EU no deal would be plausible, that is, without agreement, but it is an eventuality that at the moment they do not want either the United Kingdom or the EU.
May calls early elections
It is the most probable outcome in the event that the motion of no confidence in the May government should be approved. But it could also be an autonomous initiative by the prime minister, even if it seems hard to believe. Whatever happens, the only way to approve early elections is the two-thirds approval of the House of Commons (as was the case for last year's general election). And so, realistically, we would need an agreement between those conservative parliamentarians and Laborers who opposed the no deal hypothesis. But at such a tense moment, in which both the Conservative Party and the Labor Party are torn by internal currents, any kind of agreement seems unlikely.
In the polls these days, conservatives are head to head with Labor, and the risk of losing control of the government with a defeat - which would be very painful - is high. The script will therefore provide that Conservatori do everything, within 14 days allowed starting from the premier's resignation to form a new government, to replace May independently and avoids